Okanagan Real Estate Bubble?

by Jas Khunkhun

MARKET REAL ESTATE BUBBLE ?

AWARD WINNING REALTOR JAS KHUNKHUN MAKES A FORECAST.

If forecasters knew what the market was going to do, would they not all be ultra wealthy ? I haven’t met one yet.  No disrespect, I would not want that job.  Who has the wisdom to know what is happening with real estate next year ?

Our beautiful area, the Okanagan, does not require a forecast and I will show in one simple graph.

But first, Lets take a look at what happened recently  with Alberta oil price crash.

The oil price fell to record lows creating decreased spending in new exploration.  Within a few short months, oil companies adjusted their budgets on exploration.  Calgary felt it right away and is still reeling from the after math.  Realestate forecasters also predicted doom and gloom for Alberta and they were somewhat right – but only about some parts of Alberta.  They also said the dirty black oil clouds will come to  BC as well, spillover effect as they say, and impact our real estate.  Lets take a peek back at one forecaster comments:

“ The biggest variable is the price of oil in Alberta, which shall surely affect Kelowna housing market as a large portion of buyers in Kelowna are from that area.  Layoffs in Alberta will affect these buyers from looking at Kelowna real estate”  Elton Ash (Remax Western Canada Vice president ).

Based on the information coming at the time,  the above highly respected person made a forecast.

OPEC leaders, those guys with dark glasses and turbans (on the other side of the world) decided to lower the price of oil to 50 dollars per barrel, whether for political reasons or economic, I don’t know.  Oil prices fell to almost half of where they were in before December of 2014.

Market forecasters  predicted a soft market in real estate as a result in BC.

IN FACT THE EXACT OPPOSITE HAPPENED.

The Bank of Canada soon after the lower oil prices,  suddenly and quickly, reduced the interest rate by ½ percent overnight !…Everyone one looking to buy a home or invest a big push to do so – NOW before the rates rise again.    All those layoffs in Alberta ?  Perhaps those people were thinking “ Honey pack your bags were going to move.”

As a result, housing demand across the province is expected to produce the highest level of sales volume since 2007.

OKANAGAN REAL ESTATE – NO FORECAST REQUIRED

Okanagan is a the place to be, as prices here are expected to rise .     We are  seeing a huge increase in sales volume and inventory levels are declining.

In the Okanagan, there is steady herd of semi–retired and retired  cash rich buyers from Alberta and Vancouver lured by golf courses & wineries & the LAKE.  There is  the university growing each year and all time high consumer confidence prompting bidding wars in Vancouver and even Kelowna.  There is the low Canadian dollar bringing tourism and investments back into Canada.  This low dollar has probably also stopped a lot of Canadians from buying in the US and they probably are now retiring in Canada.  And where do they go when they retire in Canada ?  Places like the Okanagan.

There is the LOWEST interest rates in history.   Pick up a 400,000 mortgage at around 2.2 percent with payments of only 1600 per month.   Then send pictures of beautiful home and Kelowna to your friends in Regina.  Maybe post a few pictures on facebook  of your wine tour or swinging the golf club.  Be careful, though, they may be vacationing next year in your spare room.

Okanagan market will continue to remain strong for many years to come.  Take a look at this historical chart below which summarizes everything from 1987 to 2014 and puts Okanagan real estate into prospective.  This high rate of return in real estate outperforms even the stock market making buying a home or investing in one a super smart decision.   I reiterate, you don’t have to have a MBA to see what is happening.

To recap –  there are some  big variables working (not working) in Okanagan real estate right that you should be aware of:

• Alberta oil price – NO
• Interest rates – YES
• Low Canadian Dollar – YES
• Immigration from abroad – YES
• Immigration from Alberta & Vancouver – YES
• The Okanagan lifestyle – YES

Please take a look at the chart below which summarizes everything about Okanagan real estate in my opinion.  Draw a straight line from the bottom of the chart to the top and you get my point.  Do you see prices going down overall ? No. !

Whether your buying or selling, I encourage you to get a professional realtor to help you with your buying and selling decision.

Almost all my referrals are word of mouth…  www.jaskhunkhun.com.  Cell 250 575 4366